Restoring stability in the market

WITH a number of Asian countries bracing for a potentially devastating asset bubble burst, Malaysia is also rolling up its sleeves if the Budget 2014 measures were to offer a glimpse of the Government’s foresights.

The measures are meant to deter speculators and promote a more stable market that is driven by real demand. Although generally applauded by various stakeholders for its noble intentions, there are also some apprehension as to the measures’ potential impact on the property market.

Real Estate and Housing Developers’ Association president Datuk Seri Michael Yam says while the measures are meant to curb speculation, they may also dampen the market as a result of slower velocity of transaction, even though prices are not expected to fall but to remain flattish.

Yam says in the medium to longer term, the short-term knee-jerk reaction to delay decision to purchase may lead to an acute spike in demand, if supply does not keep in step. “However, those in the mass market should be less concern about this possible scenario as the Government’s strategy and incentive to supply affordable housing would ensure that those who cannot afford premium propertywould not be impacted,” he explains.

He says while the higher RPGT rate would discourage speculative activities, its potential effect will be rather limited, since only RM18bil (assuming 10% of this is speculation or only RM1.8bil or less than 3% of the RM68bil market) is in the total new residential sales market in 2012.

“It will impact the secondary market more. Recent owners and future buyers are expected to hold onto their property beyond the five-year period, thus reducing the availability of stock in the secondary market which accounts for 70% of the total value of residential transaction in 2012.

“Less supply with no change at best, or at worse increase in demand leading to further price increase. Likewise, if intending purchasers can’t buy old property, they will turn their attention to the primary market, thus increasing demand for new properties,” he points out.

Association of Valuers, Property Managers, Estate Agents and PropertyConsultants in the Private Sector, Malaysia (PEPS) president Lim Lian Hongbelieves the measures would be able to prevent people from over-committing themselves and driving prices up to astronomical heights.

“It will immediately curtail flippers of both commercial and residential property. As such, the measures will be able to put sanity back into the property market and prevent a property bubble where prices have risen beyond the reach of the masses and the income level of the population,” Lim says.

Lim, however, stresses that the effectiveness of the measures will “really depend on the liquidity situation”.

“Loan availability, employment and income factors are paramount in determiningproperty prices. It’s money that drives up property prices. It’s such an obvious statement but the availability of money is a factor of employment, banking policies as well as fiscal policies on lending. So, effective or not, it is in the control of money supply by the government and ultimately the central bank,” Lim concedes.

Managing director of property consultancy Khong & Jaafar Sdn Bhd Elvin Fernandez says with the budget measures all excessive speculation is expected to subdue fairly substantially.

The property market as a whole will move closer to its basic fundamental relationship with household incomes and long-term rental returns (for residential properties), and long-term rental returns and returns from business operations for commercial and industrial properties.

Fernandez does not expect prices of residential properties to rise in the near term as the slew of measures take effect.

CB Richard Ellis (Malaysia) group executive director Paul Khong concurs that the two measures will “surely curb speculation in the local market”.

Khong says the reinstatement of the full RPGT will obviously impact all types of properties as it was designed to curb speculation.

Investors and house buyers will now take this tax into consideration before making any purchase decisions.

“The measures will control the sharp rise of all segments of the markets. The dismantling of DIBS is an immediate measure to curb new investors from the cash-flow angle, while the RPGT affects investors’ decisions in terms of his investment tenure.

“The higher tax will cut off short-term players looking for attractive capital gains.”

Nipping the bud

However, with the escalating cost of development land and construction materials, there will still be pressure on house prices to move northwards, albeit on a slightly lesser degree, Khong concedes.

He says the categories of buyers called “the flippers” who are forced to sell down by year-end may flood the market with properties which they need to off load to escape the RPGT.

“The property market will stabilise further and many existing speculators will be looking to exit the market by year-end or be subject to 30% RPGT next January.”

He says while property prices will be affected slightly, there will not be a substantial drop as the difference between the current and the latest RPGT rates is just about 15% of the net gain.

“Investors will not loose any money due directly to this measure but will merely gain slightly less.”

The higher RPGT levied on foreigners will hit those who are in the market for short-term gains, and they may now look for a quick exit by year-end or be subject to the new rates come 2014.

Khong believes property prices will stay flattish for the next six months to a year, and that many investors will defer their decision to purchase until they come to accept the new changes.

The medium and high-end condos will be affected; with many speculators and short-term investors likely to reconsider their options. Some may just stay away.

Khong says the higher price bar for foreign buyers of RM1mil will impact the mid-level segments of the residential market and not the luxury end products.

“In the Klang Valley, most of the residential properties are already moving above the RM1mil mark. A two-storey terrace house in Sri Hartamas costs RM1.5mil now.”

He says new projectssuch as studio or one-bedroom apartments which are about to be launched priced below RM1mil will be impacted.

“However, it may not be substantial as the majority of the local residential projects usually have less than 30% foreign buyers. Projects affected would largely be in the Klang Valley, Penang and Iskandar, locations which are popular among foreign investors,” he says.

Meanwhile, National House Buyers Association (HBA) honorary secretary-generalChang Kim Loong opines that while the higher tax on profits will cut investors’ profits when they exit the market, the entry cost side has not been addressed.

He says the best way to control the entry cost to deter speculation is a review on the stamp duty payable for the transfer of property.

The present stamp duty payable does not deter speculators as the rate imposed is the same regardless of the number of properties already held or bought.

“The low stamp duty regime has been misused by speculators to accumulate multiple properties, driving up these prices by creating false demand and denying genuine buyers the opportunity to buy such properties.”

To nip speculative tendencies, he urges for a higher flat rate to be imposed on the third and subsequent properties, although the current scale can still be used on the first two properties.

Allaying market concerns, Chang says: “The HBA-proposed stamp duty would not cause any disruption to genuine house buyers who can only afford to buy two properties in their lifetime (one for own stay and one for long-term investment). On the other hand, property speculators would be discouraged as the stamp duty will greatly increase their entry cost,” Chang explains.

According to Rehda’s Yam, the higher-end premium segment of the housing market and large built-up apartments bought for investment may be most affected by the measures. Commercial strata offices which are bought by investors for recurring rental income may also see a lull.

Property in highly sought after addresses and landed housing are not expected to be affected although the rate of price increase is likely to be at a slower pace. - The Star

Shanghai tightens housing rules

BEIJING: Shanghai will raise the minimum down payment for second-home purchases to 70% from 60% in a bid to calm surging home prices, according to the city’s housing bureau, following similar moves by other big cities in China.

Home prices in large Chinese cities have set records, despite a four-year long government campaign to cool the property market, raising concerns over a potential price bubble and even social unrest as housing becomes increasingly unaffordable for many people.

Shanghai is the third city to implement a minimum down payment for second-home buyers of as high as 70%, and its move comes after Shenzhen and Beijing tightened measures in recent months.

“We will continue to improve the systems of the property market and affordable housing to effectively curb excessively fast property price rises,” the bureau said in a statement on its website. www.shfg.gov.cn. More cities are expected to follow suit.

“Guangzhou should be the next to move,” said Liu Yuan, a head of research at property consultancy Centaline.

In Shanghai, where houses are among the most expensive in China, home prices rose 17% in September from a year ago. Guangzhou’s prices jumped 20% and Beijing prices rose 16% in the month, both record growth rates.

China property shares extended losses yesterday after the announcement. Poly Real Estate ended down 1.1% in Shanghai, while Country Garden sank 3% andChina Resources Land was down 1.6% in Hong Kong.

Property shares have been roiled by uncertainty ahead of the Communist Party’s Third Plenum from today to Monday, which will see some of China’s top leaders gather behind closed doors to set the economic agenda for the next decade. Investors are waiting to see if any controls on the market will be announced after the meeting.

Also under the new Shanghai rules, migrant families in the city without residence permits must have paid their monthly social security fees or income tax for two years before they are qualified to buy a first home in the city. Previously they only needed to pay the fees for one year.

The housing bureau would increase the land supply for residential homes and study ways to lower the threshold for affordable housing applicants next year to allow more people to be covered by public housing, it added. – Reuters

RPGT won't hurt genuine buyers

Banning DIBS is the right move

FOR many years, the National House Buyers Association (HBA) has been urging the Government to take measures to stem the steep rise in property prices to avoid a “homeless generation” as current property prices are far beyond the reach of many low and middle-income families in urban and suburban areas.

This is a ticking time bomb that will result in many social problems if left unchecked.

Real Property Gains Tax (RPGT)

The announcement of the revised rate of tax on gains made in the disposal of properties, namely, the Real Property Gains Tax (RPGT), formerly known as the Anti Speculation Act, under Budget 2014 is far more superior to what had been proposed under Budget 2013 (See table above)

This is because, typically, if the property is purchased directly from the developer, it takes two years (for landed properties) and three years (for strata properties) to be completed.

Hence, under the previous RPGT, speculators could purchase properties from property developers upon their launch and then flip these properties on completion (after two years) and having to pay 10% (i.e. within the 3rd to 5th year).

It is hoped that the revised RPGT rate will deter speculators and, at the same time, not punish genuine house buyers who buy for their own stay or long-term investment. It is worth noting that buyers of residential property could seek a once-in-a-lifetime exemption from the tax.

Budget 2014 is best described as an “excellent mathematical formula” to curb the unbridled escalation of house prices, which has in the last three years skyrocketed. The Government has taken a step in the right direction with measures to slow down the steep rise in property prices due to false demand caused by excessive speculation fuelled by easy housing loans and the previously low RPGT.

Foreign purchasers to pay more

HBA applauds the move to increase the minimum price of property that can be purchased by foreigners from RM500,000 to RM1mil. Foreigners must be prevented from “snapping up” property meant for the lower and middle income.

This artificially inflates prices and creates a domino effect which can result in higher property prices across the industry. This is especially true for development corridors such as Iskandar Malaysia which has seen foreign purchasers arriving in droves and scooping up properties with their advantageous exchange rate.

Banning the Developer Interest-Bearing Scheme (DIBS)

DIBS is popular with speculators as they pay nothing to make a profit. Their initial down-payments and deposits are sometimes factored into the purchase price by the collusive developers, and some unethical financial institutions do not even require that the developer collect the deposit that has to be paid by the so-called purchaser.

This is one of the factors which induces “bogus” house buyers (which I have written about in this column on Aug 31 entitled: Of Speculators and bogus house buyers) who merely flip the property at the right time.

Kudos to Bank Negara for heeding our call and banning DIBS. It may be worth noting that Singapore banned DIBS in 2009.

Considering the deep pockets of property speculators, the effectiveness of these measures remain to be seen. However, they are expected to make speculation unworthwhile. HBA praises the Prime Minister for putting a stop to DIBS, which is one of the reasons attributed to the steep increase in property prices for three reasons:

1. DIBS encourages speculation as the house buyer does not need to “service” any interest/instalment during the construction stage. This will “lure” and tempt many house buyers to speculate and buy into DIBS projects hoping to flip on completion and make a quick profit with little or no capital upfront. Connivingly, the interest element is “serviced” by the participating developers.

2. DIBS artificially inflates prices as all interests borne by the developer are ultimately imputed into the property price. This in turn creates a domino effect which pulls up property prices in surrounding locations.

3. Bank and financial institution staff conniving with developers using the DIBS model should be investigated on their “modus operandi” in financing those artificially inflated prices (DIBS + sales price) and ignoring guidelines on prudent lending.

Banks and financial institutions are to be prudent and only provide mortgage financing up to the fair value/market value of the property. In this respect, a benchmark of fair value or market value is the current properties available. Somehow, properties sold under DIBS are always priced much higher; 15% to 20% higher compared with those without DIBS.

For standard condominiums costing RM500,000 without DIBS, should the developer market such properties under DIBS, the selling price could be as high as RM650,000. This creates a potential property bubble should the developer default in “servicing” the interest and the borrower/purchaser also defaults. The bank would only be able to recover up to RM500,000 if the said property is auctioned at market value.

In the event of an economic downturn, banks saddled with too much DIBS end-financing could collapse as the losses from such DIBS end-financing will erode the banks’ capital.

The collapse of just one bank/financial institution could cause a systemic collapse of the entire financial industry.

Bank Negara should take action against such bank and financial institution staff who have provided both project financing and end-financing to DIBS projects under the newly-minted Financial Services Act, 2013.

With the RPGT increase, banning of the DIBS and the Government’s aspiration to supply more ‘ownership housing schemes’ at affordable pricing, it is hoped that speculative demand for properties will stabilise to a more realistic level. I have heard that many businessmen do not do business anymore but indulge in property speculation as a livelihood and for income.

It is akin to the stock market dealings that were rampant during a ‘bull run’. Certain things have to be stopped before they become worse like the sub-prime crisis in the US.

If readers were to take a drive around completed projects, they will find signboards advertising units for sale upon the delivery of keys. If the purchaser is purchasing for his own occupation, why is there this need to put up these signboards or appoint estate agents to dispose of the units? It goes to show that some purchasers are merely speculators (not investors) from day one and the banks and financial institutions choose to “close one eye” despite knowing this.

Have the banks ever gone to the ground to check whether the units purchased and financed are actually “owner occupied”? If the property is “owner occupied”, the risk rating is lower and thus, he enjoys a lower interest rate. But if it is non-owner occupied, it should have higher interest rates. Borrowers of “owner occupied” properties are normally required to make a declaration to that effect to enjoy a lower interest rate.

But does the bank participate in this booking of credit risk?

If the property is non-owner occupied, the lending will fall under ‘real estate classification’ and not ‘housing’.

So, there may even be misreporting to Bank Negara and subsequent national statistics.

This column continues next week.

> CHANG KIM LOONG is the honorary secretary-general of the National House Buyers Association (www.hba.org.my), a non-profit, non-governmental organisation (NGO) manned by volunteers. He is also an NGO Councillor at theSubang Jaya Municipality Council.

Reducing speculation in the property market

GIVEN the comprehensive and wide-ranging nature of the Budget 2014 measures to rein in excessive speculation in the property market, all the stakeholders, irrespective of whether one is looking to buy or sell or acting as market mediators, are bound to be impacted in one way or other by the measures come Jan 1, next year.

The budget measures are among the most pervasive and some say “rather tough” on the market. Whether one is a potential house buyer, seller, developer or consultant, the multi-pronged measures have a good chance of influencing their decision making.

Tailored to promote a more stable and sustainable property market, the reinstatement of the full real property gains tax (RPGT), removal of developer interest bearing scheme (DIBS), affordable housing initiatives by the Government, and higher price threshold for foreign buyers will undoubtedly bring forth some major changes in both the demand and supply sides of the equation.

Market players, especially developers, will have to brace themselves for greater competition in terms of product offerings and pricing, targeting buyers and financing facilities.

For starters, more affordable residential projects are expected to be launched in the coming months since an incentive of RM30,000 a unit will be granted to developers who build such houses.

The profit on transaction within the first three years has been raised to 30%, 20% in the fourth year, 15% in the fifth year, while property held for more then five years will not be taxed.

This time around, foreign buyers are also feeling the brunt of these measures. Profit from their transactions within the first five years will be taxed at 30%, while transaction from the sixth year onwards will be taxed at 5%. The price bracket for houses that foreigners can purchase has also been raised to RM1mil from RM500,000.

In terms of financing facilities, developers can no longer offer products for sale under the DIBS, which means property buyers will have to bear the bank interest rates themselves during the construction period. Buyers can no longer just pay the minimum 5% or 10% deposit downpayment and only start to service their loans after the delivery of vacant possession of their property.

Top that up with the proposed 6% Goods and Services Tax come April 2015 and market players are practically staring at a slew of challenges ahead of them.

CB Richard Ellis (Malaysia) group executive director, Paul Khong calls the Budget a relatively tough budget especially for the property sector in 2014.

“The dismantling of DIBS will affect the new launches in the mid and mid-high end segments, especially in the high-rise residential market. RPGT, however, will cool off the entire market as it applies to all sectors and curb speculators looking for short-term gains,” he observes.

Speaking up for the developers, Real Estate and Housing Developers’ Association (Rehda) president, Datuk Seri Michael Yam says the measures to curb speculative activities in the market may disrupt the healthy and orderly growth of the propertymarket.

Surmising the concerns of his fellow developers, Yam questions the necessity for the Government’s intervention.

“If the bulk of the market is controlled and subsidised to some extent in varying degree, should the Government be too aggressive in intervening in the free market spectrum of the housing market?

“The needs of the mass market is already taken care off, so shouldn’t those who wish to acquire a lifestyle and higher specification and prime location home be prepared to pay more? A one-size-fits-all measure applied universally may have drawbacks in that not only does it impact that which the Government aims to control, but it also affects negatively healthy market forces,” he concedes.

Yam explains that the price increase of property was primarily driven by cost-push factors (input costs of construction, particularly material and labour, land bought at market price, and compliance costs) and in some urban areas, an imbalance of demand and supply.

And in the longer term, inflationary pressure and lack of supply will continue to drive price, he contends.

“Fundamentally, data points to the overall shortage of supply compared with demand attributable to a growing population and increase in the house buying group. This is more acute in the economic centres of Greater KL, Penang and to some extent Iskandar region,” Yam says.

He points out the increase in RPGT would cause recent purchasers to retain ownership for a longer period beyond the five-year holding period, thus reducing supply into the sub-sale market. “As such, would-be purchasers of older properties would now turn their attention to the new supply market which could consequently tilt the demand and supply equilibrium and add to further price increase in high demand enclaves and landed housing,” he observes.

Giving the thumbs up for the budget initiatives, National House Buyers Association (HBA) honorary secretary-general, Chang Kim Loong says what Malaysia needs is a vibrant and sustainable housing market based on real demand, and hopefully, the anti-speculative measures will be effective in stabilising the market.

“We certainly hope the measures will stem the steep rise in property prices that has affected the lower and middle income groups that typically comprise propertypriced below RM200,000 for the lower income and up to RM500,000 for the middle income group.

“The higher RPGT will hopefully slow down speculative effects which has resulted in higher property prices in recent years. It will not affect genuine house buyers who buy for own occupation or for long-term investment. Besides, buyers of residential property can seek a once-in-a-lifetime exemption from RPGT,” Chang says.

Association of Valuers, Property Managers, Estate Agents and PropertyConsultants in the Private Sector, Malaysia (PEPS) president Lim Lian Hongvoices his confidence that the measures should help the market to mature and market players will be responsible and considerate in their investments.

“Property will remain as a major long-term investment instrument and buyers will get better value for the money they pay for in comparison to the yields they may get. Capital appreciation will not be as astronomical as before but increase there will be,” Lim observes.

Concurring with Lim is Khong & Jaafar Sdn Bhd managing director, Elvin Fernandez who says the measures in the Budget are bold and needed, for the economy and the property market.

“The Government hopes to make the taxation system more efficient and in line with international practices. The right set of messages is sent and this should be followed with good implementation and continued consistency as we move forward,” he notes.

Calling for “taming the market until it is tamed”, Fernandez says if the measures do not bring prices closer to the underlying fundamentals, then further and additional measures should be taken.

“Such an overall strategy is the clear message that should be transmitted to market players. Tame until it is tamed.”

He says in the past, monetary policy by way of interest rates was the main instrument used to tame asset markets. But after the global financial crisis, most countries use macro-prudential measures directed at specific sectors, such as theproperty market.

On the proposed Goods and Services Tax (GST), Rehda’s Yam calls for greater clarity on its implementation.

“Although it is rumoured that residential properties may be GST exempt, developers would still need to bear the increased cost of input, which would be subject to GST and (there will be the) need to pass (on) the incremental costs. Thus, subject to further clarification, selling prices would need to be adjusted to account for the increased costs.”

Khong & Jaafar’s Fernandez says: “The GST, 17 months from now, has the potential of increasing the price of residential properties by 1% to 2%, but that too will depend on the state of the market at that time. If the residential market is buoyant at that time prices may go up, but if the residential market is not that buoyant and is in a steady state, it is likely that developers may just have to absorb the “input” costs.”

“Some input costs (sales tax) for building materials at present are at 5% so that means a 1% increase in the future, whereas others are at 10% and this will result in savings when the 6% GST comes into play.” - The Star

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Global property hot spots do not mean another easy money bubble waiting to burst

From China to Canada and London, fast-rising property markets are haunting the global economy again, five years after the US subprime mortgage bubble burst and triggered the worst financial crisis since the 1930s.

For now, house price inflation is neither as high nor as widespread as it was in the middle of last decade. Except in a few cases, the warning signals are flashing amber, not red, and several countries have acted to cool overheating markets.

But the confidence of policy makers that they can avoid another boom and bust could be tested if central banks keep pumping out nearly free money to support economic growth by encouraging investment in riskier assets such as equities and property.

Plentiful cheap credit is one more inducement to home buyers who, in many countries, can deduct mortgage interest from their taxable income or are exempted from capital gains tax when they sell their house, said Andrew Oswald, a professor of economics at Warwick University in Britain.

"We're stoking up a huge bubble. It's extraordinary. We virtually ruined the Western world by having high house price inflation and now we're determined to do it again," he said.

On the face of it, the re-acceleration in US house prices spells trouble.

According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), the national median home value at the height of the bubble, in July 2006, was US$230,400 (RM725,068). In July 2011, the median price was 25.7% below that peak. By July this year, it had climbed back to within 7.3% of the high water mark.

Yet some of the engines of the price recovery are spluttering. Most importantly, mortgage rates have risen as markets anticipate an end to the Federal Reserve's bond buying.

Robert Shiller, the co-creator of the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index, said higher borrowing costs could limit US house price gains in 2014 to roughly 6%. The index rose 12.8% in the 12 months to August.

"The US market might be cooling," Shiller told Reuters. "I think prices will keep going up for a while. There is still momentum, but it may fade and turn down in the next year or two."

Higher interest rates are causing cash buyers to pull back. According to Goldman Sachs, in 2012 and the first half of 2013 fully 60% of home purchases were all-cash transactions, double the pre-crash figure, as Wall Street and foreign investors swooped in on distressed markets.

Family buyers are taking up some of the slack, but the speculative frenzy that marked the go-go years of the mid-2000s is missing. Banks have tightened mortgage standards, while the jobless rate is a lofty 7.2% and wages are stagnant.

In Las Vegas, prices have rebounded 29.2% in the past year, but Gregory Smith, a local real-estate agent, said the market was cooling off.

"More families are starting to get their offers accepted, as the investors retreat. These are real buyers who intend to stay in the homes long-term. We are in a flattening-out phase," he said.

To assess property market risk, house prices need to be gauged in relation to income.

Whereas the US price-to-income ratio at the end of 2012 stood at 84.3, measured against a rolling long-run average of 100, the ratio in Canada was at a 10-year high of 131.7, according to the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development.

Moreover, Canada's debt-to-income ratio reached a record high of 163.4% in the second quarter.

"Debt is at record levels, and we know consumers are biting off more than they can chew financially, so does this lead to more problems down the road?" asked Laurie Campbell, chief executive at Credit Canada, a credit counselling agency.

The same question is being asked across Asia. As mortgage rates return to pre-crisis averages, monthly housing payments in most Asian countries will rise by 15-25%, according to David Carbon, an analyst with DBS, a Singaporean bank.

He said Asia's housing debt as a percentage of GDP remains lower than in America, and home prices in Asia are 22% lower, relative to incomes, than in 2000.

"By this gauge, Asia has little to fear on the property front - homes are become more affordable, not more expensive," Carbon wrote in a recent report.

Even in China, prices are 40% more affordable on average than in 2000, according to DBS.

But the average masks vast discrepancies in China, where the government is concerned about a bubble and the potential for social unrest as inequality over access to housing grows.

Prices nationwide rose on average by 9.1% in the year to September, but surged 16% in Beijing and 17% in Shanghai.

"There are overheating signs in Tier 1 cities. The central government should take some measures, at least including stricter implementation of existing measures," said Wang Juelin, a former senior housing ministry researcher.

Demand by Chinese buyers has helped boost Hong Kong prices by 120% since 2008.

Hong Kong responded last October with a 15% tax on overseas buyers and in February imposed higher stamp duties and home loan curbs.

As a result, the premiums for new homes over existing homes that developers seek has shrunk to about 20% from 50-80%, according to Thomas Lam, head of research for Greater China at real estate firm Knight Frank.

Singapore has increased stamp duties and capped how much people can borrow relative to their income. New Zealand has clamped down on mortgage lending.

In Australia, house prices rose 5.8% in the year to mid-September, but Phil Chronican, ANZ Bank's local chief executive, said concern about a bubble was overstated, partly because the market had been subdued for so long.

"To stop this demand exacerbating the rising price trends, though, we need to see a supply response," he said. "We need more houses and apartments."

Supply constraints, notably strict planning rules, are contributing to surging prices in London where high-end property has been in demand from well-heeled foreign investors.

Richard Donnell, research director at property analysts Hometrack, said it was tough to set a rational price benchmark for London, given the differing motives of foreign buyers.

Prices in the capital rose 9.4% in the year to September, according to Land Registry data.

"At the moment it looks like prices are going to keep on going up. It's impossible to know what will change sentiment," Donnell said.

The British government has launched subsidised mortgage schemes to galvanise housing ahead of an election in 2015, but Donnell said there was no nationwide bubble.

Prices rose 3.4% on average in the year to September, government figures show, though mortgage lender Nationwide said property inflation hit a three-year high of 5.8% last month.

The picture in Europe is one of stark divergences.

The International Monetary Fund has expressed concern about high prices in Norway and the Bundesbank grabbed headlines by warning that apartments in Germany's biggest cities could be overvalued by as much as 20%.

In countries such as Ireland, Spain and Denmark, by contrast, price-to-income ratios have slumped since the peak in 2006/2007. Prices have also been tumbling in the Netherlands because of uncertainty over the future of generous tax breaks.

Generalising about a global asset class when conditions vary from country to country is treacherous.

In Japan, the cost of residential land, a proxy for property prices, is still 50% below its 1991 peak, but new condominiums in Tokyo are selling briskly.

At Skyz Tower & Garden, an apartment building near the site of the athletes' village for the 2020 summer Olympics, the first 820 units went on sale in August and are almost sold out.

Buyers probably expect Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's economic policies, which include a doubling of Japan's monetary base, to push up prices and lead to higher interest rates, said Ryo Hashimoto, head of the condominium's sales team.

For advanced countries as a group, house prices were now 'appropriate' considering historically low mortgage rates, according to ABN Amro, a Dutch bank.

"We are getting to a new phase where regular, middle-class families can purchase again," said Madeline Schnapp, an economist with PropertyRadar.com, a California firm. "But unless jobs get moving and incomes begin to rise, I don't think we are in danger of any sort of bubble." - Reuters, November 2, 2013.

Rehda urges government to reconsider new budget policies

PETALING JAYA: The Real Estate and Housing Developers’ Association of Malaysia (Rehda) hopes the government will review several policies announced in Budget 2014 which may affect the property sector.

They include the 6% goods and services tax (GST), the real property gains tax (RPGT) hike and the ban on the developers’ interest bearing scheme (DIBS).

“We urge the government to consider exempting the housing industry from GST or be zero rated and material and other related costs be exempted from the GST,” said Rehda deputy president and organising chairman of the Rehda Annual Dinner 2013, Datuk FD Iskandar Mansor.

He said Rehda strongly feels this will ensure the government meets its objective of helping to make homes available and affordable to the middle-income population.

On the hike in the RPGT effective Jan 1 next year, FD Iskandar hopes the government will not “burn the candle at both ends”.

A RPGT of 30% will be imposed on properties sold within the first three years. This is followed by 20% in the fourth year and 15% in the fifth year. The RPGT will not be imposed on properties sold from the sixth year onwards.

“We as industry stake holders feel the new RPGT rate will have a negative impact on the secondary market. This will create unnecessary pessimism which will slow down sales. It will eventually cause a delay in the disposal of properties by genuine sellers which will only impact the future supply to the market,” said FD Iskandar.

“The 30% RPGT imposed on the disposal of properties by foreigners within five years will send a wrong signal to investors on our property investments and promotion policies,” he said.

FD Iskandar: We urge the government to consider exempting the housing industry from GST or be zero rated and material and other related costs be exempted from the GST.

The ban on DIBS, according to FD Iskandar, will undoubtedly affect property developers. He said banks and financial institutions need to play their part to weed out speculators by not approving property loans to those who are buying for the sole purpose of flipping.

However, FD Iskandar lauded the government’s move to introduce the private affordable housing ownership scheme (MyHome) to encourage the private sector to build more low- and medium-cost houses.

One of the possibilities that Rehda has proposed to the government is to convert the low-cost housing quota to the affordable housing quota and that the management of housing for the hardcore poor be reverted to the government via its agencies such as Syarikat Perumahan Negara Bhd, state economic development agencies and the National Housing Department.

Rehda also called for the streamlining of state level policies, which differ from those of the federal government, for an efficient delivery of affordable housing to the rakyat.

According to FD Iskandar, the different impositions and requirements for the provision of affordable housing by the various states make it difficult for developers to come up with practical solutions that can meet expectations and satisfy all parties.

The Rehda Annual Dinner 2013 was held on Wednesday evening at the Sime Darby Convention Centre. The event was graced by guest of honour Urban Wellbeing, Housing and Local Government Minister Datuk Abdul Rahman Dahlan.

Rehda launched its inaugural Rehda Recognition Award in which two awards were handed out. S P Setia Bhd took home the Outstanding Developer award while Tan Sri Eddy Chen was given the Rehda Personality award. Rehda’s immediate past president Datuk Ng Seing Liong was conferred patronship at the event.


This article first appeared in The Edge Financial Daily, on November 1, 2013.

Double whammy for buyers

THE recent budget dropped a double whammy for property buyers — an increase in real property gains tax (RPGT), ranging from 30% to 15% within five years, and the prohibition of Developer Interest Bearing Schemes (DIBS) where developers pay for interest on buyers’ loans during construction.

What will be the impact on the property market?

According to property consultants CH Williams Talhar & Wong, an increase in RPGT will cause property transactions to drop, as they did this year when RPGT was increased in Budget 2013.

Indeed, outside of stampedes on projects like Sime Darby’s Bandar Bukit Raja,YTL Land’s The Fennel, SP Setia’s Seri Mutiara apartments in Setia Alam and Setia Eco Hill in Semenyih as well as Eco World’s debut previews, the market over the last two years has cooled compared to the bull runs of 2010 and 2011.

While total property transactions dropped about 1% last year after having climbed more than 10% in 2010 and 2011, the number of home sales in the first half of this year dropped about 13% compared to the first half of last year.

This was from around 136,000 units to about 119,000 units, according to the Finance Ministry’s National Property Information Centre (Napic). The number of home sales dropped by about 16% in Selangor, and by almost half in Kuala Lumpur.

“Since early last year, when Bank Negara imposed the responsible property lending guidelines, we have seen the market slow down,” said MIEA president Siva Shanker.

“Before that, it was a bit of a free-for-all. Anyone could get all sorts of loans, especially in the primary market.”

Will prices drop?

In terms of value, however, the value of total home sales stayed pretty constant throughout Malaysia and Selangor in the first half of this year (1H2013), compared to 1H2012, although they did drop about 26% in Kuala Lumpur.

In terms of average home prices transacted, in fact, that still increased in 1H2013 by a national average of 16% compared to 1H2012, or 19% in Selangor and a whopping 41% in KL.

Indeed, according to Napic’s house price index, house prices increased every year since 1988. Outside of 1998 and 1999, in the wake of the Asian Financial Crisis, the index has increased even in years when the total values of property transactions dropped, such as 2001 and 2005, albeit marginally.

Some industry watchers also believe that there will be a surge in demand next year, before the goods and services tax (GST) is implemented in 2015.

“We do not think property prices will correct, but rather stabilise allowing a greater pool of buyers to come on stream,” suggested Kenanga Research in its post-Budget analysis.

Nevertheless, property prices in some areas have increased to unsustainable levels, believes Khong & Jaafar managing director, Elvin Fernandez.

“For selected hotspots in Kuala Lumpur, property prices are not four times the average household income, but 15 times!

“Even for highly popular areas like Bangsar, there has to be a limit. If Bangsar is RM1.5mil, people want to live there, but are you saying that if the price is RM3mil or RM10mil, will people still want to live in Bangsar? At some point, it has got to stop.”

Taking shape: More properties are coming into the market next year. 

Completed but empty

One property that has purportedly dropped its prices is a beautiful condo development located behind my own.

It sits on a hilltop within a quiet and low-density neighbourhood, within striking distance of Bangsar, Damansara Heights and Mont’Kiara. For many, you can’t get a more desirable address than that.

The property itself is gorgeous with all the mod-cons — exclusive lift lobbies where access cards open only to your apartment, video intercom, fibre optic backbone, and the like. Even though the development was completed about three years ago, more than 60% of the tower is empty.

“This tower was originally bought en-bloc by a tycoon who intended to re-sell for profit, but it is taking some time because they are all big units of more than 2,000, sq ft,” said a source close to the development.

“Now, the bank is also involved in the sale, and although the developer’s last price was over RM800 per sq ft, the price has recently been reduced to RM720 per sq ft.”

Another condominium in a central Damansara Heights has been quite empty since being handed over in 2011. A total of 92 out of 318 units are occupied, which works out to under 30%, said a source close to the development. In fact, there are still developer units available for sale. The majority of sub-sale owners here are foreigners, including investors, from Europe and Singapore, as well as block owners holding between 25 to 40 units, who engage agents to market their units.

Too many luxury condos

Many times, owners of apartments such as these would rather hang on to their investments in the hope of selling for a profit, than look for tenants, reckoned Siva Shanker.

“We as estate agents often go to these owners and ask them, ‘Would you like to rent your unit?’ They say, ‘No, no, I want to sell!’ and we say, ‘But you’re getting nothing for it now, why don’t I bring you a tenant that will give you at least RM6,000?’ Maybe they don’t want to spend RM150K to renovate, put in kitchen cabinets, wardrobes and all that. They just leave it and don’t care.

“It’s a distortion of the market,” admitted a young developer. Too much money speculating on property, while the main core of market cannot afford those prices.”

“The worst part about it is when absentee buyers don’t pay management or maintenance charges. Sometimes, they say there’s no income from the unit so they don’t want to pay. The result is dilapidated facilities and a security concern for those few units that are occupied.”

Even developers don’t like properties that stay empty after being handed over.

“We don’t want it empty,” said one representative of a leading developer, “It doesn’t look good.”

Even if owners are willing to rent, the average occupancy rate for existing luxury condominiums in KL has been on a downtrend since 2008 except for the Kenny Hills area, according to CH Williams Talhar & Wong’s Property Market Report 2012.

“In 1H2012, the average occupancy rate further decreased by about 5% to 61.6%.

“This is because new units were entering the rental market at a faster rate than the slower projected demand from working expatriate professionals entering Malaysia. Furthermore, many more luxury condo units will be completed in the Klang Valley this year,” the report said.

And the market for commercial property is also not spared. With its luxurious, fully-glazed and curved facade, this office building is a looker located just next to the Sprint highway, opposite Tropicana City Mall.

Yet, even though it was handed over to its strata title owners early this year, it is still only about 10% to 20% occupied, said an estate agent who sells units there.

Signs recently came out for a furniture retailer to take up the ground and first floor, while one floor was sold to a Japanese company, she said. Nevertheless, the rest of the units remain empty.

Unsurprisingly, prices and rents have dropped. Launched at about RM270 per sq ft, owners had originally listed the units for RM550 per sq ft, but some of them are now willing to go down to RM440 per sq ft, she adds.

“Asking rent has also gone down, originally from RM4 per sq ft to RM2.50 or even RM2 per sq ft.”

These prices going down are just asking prices, however, says Siva Shanker.

“Take condos around KLCC for example, people were asking for RM2,500 psf, and then in 2008 and 2009, people didn’t want to buy anything, so prices dropped to RM1,700 or RM1,800 per sq ft.

“In reality, many of the good locations stayed flat in transacted price. People are still making money compared to what they first paid.”

Hopefully, this would ultimately mean more realistic prices.

Given the banning of DIBS and tighter credit controls, loans may be less and less easy to come by, but prices may ideally approach fundamental values and keep the market moving.

The increase in RPGT will also make it more attractive to rent than flip.

“Instead of trying to sell at a high price, rent it out for the next two to three years. Don’t leave it empty. Get rental income,” advised Siva.

Hopefully this ultimately means all those properties we are told are so scarce and in-demand but end up empty will, rather than just being owned and held, actually be occupied and lived in. It just seems to make more sense, doesn’t it?

Is now the time to take advantage of an uncertain market?

* Check out all the latest real estate projects and discussions about the impact of Budget 2014 at Star Property Fair 2013, happening from Nov 8 to 10 at KLCC Convention Centre. More information from fair.starproperty.my. Contact the writer at sulin.chee@thestar.com.my.